Solar Flares

Have moved this post to its correct topic.

STRONG COMPRESSION OF EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE - As expected, a double CME hit Earth's magnetic field on June 16th around 0900 UT. Initially, the impact appeared to be weak, but now the effects are growing. Analysts say the impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing some geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma. Geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible in the hours ahead.

CHANCE OF FLARES - Sunspot AR1504 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbours energy for strong solar flares and the huge sunspot is directly facing Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares from AR1504 during the next 24 hours. So far the sunspot region fired off two M-class flares, and two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on June 13th and 14th. A huge prominence has also popped up on the sun's western limb.

Friday 15^th June 2012

Peter

ELECTRIC-BLUE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS - Data from NASA's AIM spacecraft show that noctilucent clouds are like a great "geophysical light bulb." They turn on every year in late spring, reaching almost full intensity over a period of no more than 5 to 10 days. News flash: The bulb is glowing. These electric-blue clouds are hanging 85 km above Earth's surface, at the edge of space itself. Their origin is still largely a mystery; various theories associate them with space dust, rocket exhaust, global warming - or some mixture of the three. One thing is sure. They're baaack ... for the summer of 2012.
NLCs favour high latitudes, although they have been sighted as far south as Colorado and Virginia. Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the Sun has dipped 6o to 16o below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.

A geomagnetic storm is in progress in the wake of a double CME impact on June 16th. The hit, which strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, lit up both poles with bright auroras. In the Americas, Northern Lights descended as far south as Oregon, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Washington, and the Dakotas. Solar wind conditions in the wake of the CME favour continued disturbances. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of more high-latitude geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours. Monday 18^th June 2012



Peter

HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY - Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
On July 4th, sunspot AR1515 hurled at least four minor CMEs into space. Most flew south of the ecliptic plane (the orbital plane of the planets), on track to miss everything. One of them, however, appears to be heading toward Earth. The cloud will reach Earth on Saturday, July 7th around 0600 UT.
Sunspot AR1513 also erupted on the 4th of July, producing an M2-class solar flare and a burst of shortwave radio noise that roared out of the loudspeakers of receivers on Earth. These radio sounds are caused by beams of electrons accelerated by the flare. As the electrons slice through the sun's atmosphere, they generate a ripple of plasma waves and radio emissions detectable on Earth 93 million miles away. More radio bursts are in the offing as AR1515 and AR1513 crackle with magnetic explosions.

Peter

Heavens Peter,that sounds ominous.

Don't understand all it says but get the gist of it.

Please continue when you can.

Most interesting.

Joanie

Peter

Please keep going,Peter.
Sorry to interupt your flow.

Extremely interesting.

Joanie wrote:Please keep going,Peter.
Sorry to interupt your flow.

Extremely interesting.

Hi Joannie - not sure why you are woried about 'my flow' but am pleased you find it interesting.

The sun is going through a high energy phase that will last into 2013 before peaking!

I find the whole thing fascinating--the last time the Northern Lights were seen so far to the south was in the 1750's.

Will continue to post information as I find it from-NASA and SpaceWeather.com

PPLLnL

Peter

Thanks Peter.

The flow of your words.....

Great information,please keep going.

Joanie

SUNDAY MORNING SKY SHOW: Set your alarm for dawn on Sunday morning, July 15th. Venus, Jupiter and the crescent Moon are gathering for a bright three-way conjunction in the eastern sky before sunrise. Must-see!

CME IMPACT: As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 14th at approximately 1800 UT or 11 am Pacific Daylight Time). A geomagnetic storm is brewing in the wake of the impact. At the moment, conditions appear favorable for auroras over high-latitude places such as Canada, Scandinavia, Antarctica and Siberia. It is too early to say whether the storm will intensify and bring auroras to middle latitudes as well. Stay tuned for updates.
The arrival of the CME shook Earth's magnetic field, which in turn induced electrical currents in the ground at Arctic latitudes. Rob Stammes measured the effect from his magnetic observatory in Lofoten, Norway:
Peter

GEOMAGNETIC STORM - A fast-moving CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 14th at approximately 1800 UT. The impact was not as strong as forecasters expected. Nevertheless, the blow compressed Earth's magnetosphere and sparked a mild (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm, in progress. So far, few sightings of auroras have been reported. The arrival of the CME shook Earth's magnetic field, which in turn induced electrical currents in the ground at Arctic latitudes. This one was not particularly strong, at least in terms of ground currents. Relatively weak ground currents are consistent with the muted displays of auroras in the aftermath of the strike.

Peter

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A geomagnetic storm is in progress as Earth's magnetic field continues to reverberate from a CME strike on July 14th. At first the CME's impact seemed relatively weak, but conditions in the wake of the CME have become stormy. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that satellites in geosynchronous orbit may have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma. Also, Northern Lights have appeared in the United States as far south as California, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan and Arkansas.

Peter

Monday, July 16, 2012




AURORA ALERT - A geomagnetic storm is in progress as Earth's magnetic field continues to reverberate from a CME strike on July 14th. Sky watchers in Scandinavia, Canada, Alaska and northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington should be alert for auroras after nightfall. The hours around local midnight are usually best for aurora-spotting.
When the CME first arrived on July 14th, its effect appeared weak. However, conditions in the wake of the CME have since become stormy. On July 14-15 Northern Lights appeared in the United States as far south as California, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan and Arkansas. Meanwhile in the southern hemisphere, the aurora australis has been sighted in New Zealand, Australia, and directly above the South Pole itself.
Sunspot 1520 poses a continued threat for X-class solar flares. As the sunspot turns away from Earth, however, the chances of a geoeffective eruption are decreasing.


Peter

ALMOST X-FLARE - Sunspot complex AR1520-1521 erupted again on July 19th, this time producing an M7-class solar flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. The explosion produced a bright coronal mass ejection. The cloud should miss Earth. Although the explosion occured on the other side of the sun's western limb, our planet could feel some effects. The blast site is magnetically connected to Earth by backward-spiralling lines of magnetic force. Protons accelerated by the flare are being guided to us by those lines of magnetism, and a mild radiation storm is underway.
On the sun's SW limb, a magnificent row (or "arcade") of magnetic loops is towering over the limb. Magnetic arcades often form in the aftermath of significant explosions such as the one that occured during the early hours of July 19th.
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. On July 20, 2012 there were 1322 potentially hazardous asteroids. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.


Peter

coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the sun's atmosphere to boil away. The escaping gas forms a stream of solar wind. This coronal hole is perfectly positioned near the sun's equator to create a geoeffective stream--in other words, the solar wind stream will hit Earth directly. ETA: July 27 or 28. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates.

Peter

A TASTE OF SOLAR MAX: Forecasters say solar maximum is still a year away. Earlier this month sky watchers got a taste of things to come when a powerful flare sparked Northern Lights over the United States as far south as Arkansas, Colorado and California.

Peter

This may be my last post--the next 12 months are going to get very exciting.

Have enjoyed the forecasts Peter,very much.

Hopefully there will be more in the future.

Joanie