Solar Activity

First topic message reminder :

I am starting this new thread in order to tell the forum of the state of the sun.

1752 was the last time the sun went through a maximum energy thrust--the sun will repeat this during 2013.

The 'Arora Borialis' has again been seen as far south as 'california' and the southern equivalent as far north as 'Cape Town'

If you are interested in this -then I will keep you updated via NASA and other scientific institutes!

The current 'weather' anomolies around the world 'MAY' be a part of this--it has not yet ben proven or disproven!

PPLLnL

Peter

ADVANCING SUNSPOTS - For the past two weeks, solar activity has been relatively low. Now, a change is in the offing. The farside of the sun is peppered with sunspots, and some of them are beginning to turn toward Earth. Underlying each nest of glowing magnetic loops is a dark sunspot that poses a threat for solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
A coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th, sparking a dramatic display of Arctic lights that is only now subsiding three days later. More lights could appear on Oct. 14-15. That's when a stream of solar wind spewing from a hole in the suns atmosphere (a "coronal hole") is expected to reach Earth, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms when it arrives.
Another newly discovered Asteroid, 2012 TM79, passed by earth within 0.2 Lunar Distances - that one on Oct. 9th. As previously reported, Asteroid 2012 TC4 will pass by earth within 0.2 Lunar Distances today.


Peter

It's a good thing that you're keeping track of this. I think your updates are very important!

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY - A G1-class geomagnetic storm was underway on Oct. 13th. Reports of bright auroras have been received from Scandinavia, Greenland, Canada and several northern-tier US states. Reported from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan: "Never have I seen the auroras so bright, especially from within the city. They were astounding, with purple visible to the naked eye."
The ongoing storm was triggered by a knot of south-pointing magnetism from the sun. During the early hours of Oct. 13th, the knot bumped into Earth's magnetic field, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the auroras. More auroras are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong polar geomagnetic storms today when a solar wind stream is expected to blow past Earth.
RADIO STORM ON JUPITER: Two nights ago, there was a storm on Jupiter -- a radio storm. An amateur radio astronomer recorded the event using a shortwave radio telescope located in New Mexico. Whooshing, crackling, and popping sounds emerged from his telescope's loudspeaker:
Jupiter's radio storms are caused by natural radio lasers in the planet's magnetosphere that sweep past Earth as Jupiter rotates. Electrical currents flowing between Jupiter's upper atmosphere and the volcanic moon Io can boost these emissions to power levels easily detected by ham radio antennas on Earth. Jovian "S-bursts" and "L-bursts" mimic the sounds of woodpeckers, whales, and waves crashing on the beach. Now is a good time to listen to Jupiter's radio storms. The distance between Earth and Jupiter is decreasing as the giant planet approaches opposition on Dec. 3rd; the closer we come to Jupiter, the louder it gets.

Peter

X-FLARE - Sunspot AR1598 erupted on Oct. 23rd at 0322 UT, producing a strong X1-class solar flare. Radiation from the flare created waves of ionization in the upper atmosphere over Asia and Australia (the daylit side of Earth) and possibly HF radio blackouts at high latitudes. The blast did not, however, produce a significant coronal mass ejection (CME). No auroras are expected to result from this event.
This is the 4th significant flare from AR1598 since it emerged over the southeastern limb only three days ago. This means more flares are probably in the offing, and they will become increasingly Earth-directed as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead.
CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class solar flares and a 10% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. The most likely source of any eruption is big sunspot AR1598.

Peter

Thanks for keeping up with the forecasts,Peter.
Joanie

We have had a VERY quiet spell. Could this be the start of a new wave of activity--




HUMONGOUS ERUPTION - A truly gigantic explosion happened on the sun Friday. On Nov. 16th, magnetic fields snaking halfway across the sun's southern hemisphere erupted in tandem, producing a prominence so big, it didn't fit inside the image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. The sun unleashed the monster eruption of super-hot plasma in back-to-back solar storms captured on camera by a NASA spacecraft. The giant sun eruption, called a solar prominence, occurred at 1 a.m. EST (0600 GMT). The blast hurled a CME into space, but the cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth. A movie of the event shows magnetic fields in concerted motion across an expanse of solar "terrain" more than 700,000 km wide. Observations have shown that such wide-ranging eruptions are not uncommon on the sun - the great Global Eruption of August 2010 being the iconic example

Peter

The sun is still relatively quiet so I thought this might whet a few appetites.


Near-Earth Asteroid 2012 DA14 to narrowly miss Earth on February 15, 2013 - Discovered by the LaSagra observatory in southern Spain, the small asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass within about 3.5 Earth radii of the Earth's surface on February 15, 2013. Although its size is not well determined, this near-Earth asteroid is thought to be about 57 meters in diameter. Asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass inside the geosynchronous satellite ring, located about 35,800 km above the equator. Its orbit about the sun can bring it no closer to the Earth's surface than 3.2 Earth radii. On this date, the asteroid will travel rapidly from the southern evening sky into the northern morning sky with its closest Earth approach occurring about 19:26 UTC when it will achieve a magnitude of less than seven, which is somewhat fainter than naked eye visibility. About 4 minutes after its Earth close approach, there is a good chance it will pass into the Earth's shadow for about 18 minutes or so before reappearing from the eclipse. When traveling rapidly into the northern morning sky, 2012 DA14 will quickly fade in brightness. (projected path map)
Astronomers estimate that, when it’s closest to us, the asteroid will be about 21,000 miles (35,000 kilometers) away – much closer than Earth’s moon (about 240,000 miles away) – and closer even than some of our own orbiting satellites. Astronomers’ calculations of asteroid orbits can be trusted. After all, even decades ago, they knew enough about calculating orbits to send people to the moon and bring them safely back, and today we are able place our space vehicles in orbit around objects as small as asteroids. So 2012 DA14 won’t strike us in 2013. There was a remote possibility it might strike us in 2020, but that possibility has been ruled out also.
Earlier this year, when a collision between 2012 DA14 and Earth in 2020 was still possible, an astronomer clarified the risk - a 2020 collision between Earth and asteroid 2012 DA14 was only a “remote possibility... approximately one chance in 83,000, with additional remote possibilities beyond 2020. However, by far the most likely scenario is that additional observations, especially in 2013, will allow a dramatic reduction in the orbit uncertainties and the complete elimination of the 2020 impact possibility." It turned out they didn’t have to wait until 2013. By May, 2012, astronomers had ruled out even the remote possibility of a 2020 collision.
Still, 2012 DA14 and asteroids like it are sobering. Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a little guy, compared to some asteroids, although its size has not been pinned down precisely. If a space object 150 feet wide were to strike our planet, it wouldn’t be Earth-destroying. But it has been estimated that it would produce the equivalent of 2.4 megatons of TNT.
In 1908, in a remote part of Russia, an explosion killed reindeer and flattened trees. But no crater was ever found. Scientists now believe a small comet struck Earth. That event has been estimated at 3 to 20 megatons. So 2012 DA14 is in the same approximate realm as the Tunguska comet (which, actually, might have been an asteroid instead). It would not destroy Earth, but it could flatten a city. About 70% of our world is covered by oceans. That means the most likely landing spot of any incoming asteroid is in the water – not on a city or other populated area.
The orbit of 2012 DA14 is an inclined ellipse. In other words, it’s tilted sightly with respect to Earth’s orbit around the sun, and, like Earth’s orbit, it’s not circular but elliptical. The asteroid spends most of its time well away from our planet. However, the path of the rock does bring it somewhat close to the Earth twice per orbit, or about every six months. The last time it passed us was on February 16 [2012], when it was about 2.5 million km (1.5 million miles) away, equal to about 6 times the distance to the moon. That’s usually about the scale of these encounters — it misses us by quite a margin.
2012 DA14 will not hit us next year, or in 2020. However, it should be close enough to catch the attention of virtually everyone on Earth in February 2013, on what’s sure to be a media field day. On the day it passes, most of us won’t see it or be aware of its passage, in any way. The asteroid won’t alter the tides. It won’t cause volcanoes. It’ll just sweep closely past us – as millions of asteroids have done throughout Earth’s four-and-a-half-billion-year history.

Peter

Over the next few months the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy will set about consuming a vast cloud of interstellar dust and gas - known as G2 - that has strayed too close to the singularity's event horizon.
It promises to be quite a show as all the material that doesn't get sucked into oblivion will be swept up, swirled around in a gigantic catherine wheel, heated, stretched, shredded and finally fired out again in a dazzling display of gravitational power. Not something astronomers get to see every day.
"The black hole at the centre of our galaxy is normally quite quiet, docile even, but as this cloud begins to fall in the material is going to get very, very hot and it's going to start emitting all sorts of radiation. WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN but we know it's going to be spectacular."
The galactic pyrotechnic display about to be unleashed couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. NASA's latest space based X-ray telescope, NuSTAR, was only launched in June but is already offering a grandstand view of G2's death throes. "We got lucky and caught an initial outburst from the black hole during our first observing campaign in July. But that's just a taste of what's to come next year, and NuSTAR will be there to catch it".
The close encounter between Sagittarius A* [the black hole] and the G2 dust cloud is set to start early in the New Year. The latest simulations suggest the massive cloud of dust and gas will have been completely consumed in less than a decade. Quite a meal, even for a supermassive black hole.
"Black holes have had a bad rap. We've always thought of them as these dark, brooding destructive entities, but it turns out their influence is much more creative. Black holes help to regulate galaxies, acting a bit like a pressure valve that prevents star formation from running away with itself". By dictating the large-scale structure of galaxies like the Milky Way, black holes have helped to establish the conditions necessary for life to emerge.
But it's the other, less creative, side of a black hole's personality that will be grabbing the headlines over the next few months. "It's very exciting because it's the first time we've been able to predict something like this, and the first time we've had the telescopes and instruments ready to watch it in detail. We hope we'll see some of the processes at play in converting matter into energy around black holes".

Peter

'Black holes' have always been my curiosity.

Would they be near to what we call Dust Bins?

Joanie

Joanie wrote:'Black holes' have always been my curiosity.

Would they be near to what we call Dust Bins?

Joanie

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Peter

My own interpretation,Peter.

What's the old remark? When something going missing?

'It must have disappeared down a black hole'.



Joanie

QUIET SUN, BUT NOT FOR LONG? - For the second week in a row, solar activity remains very low, but a new group of sunspots could be poised to break the quiet. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory observed the phalanx of dark cores emerging over the sun's southeastern limb on Dec. 15th. It is too soon to say whether these spots have potential for strong flares. We'll know more in a few days when they turn toward Earth, offering a clearer view of their magnetic architecture. Meanwhile, NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of an M-class eruption to 10% on Dec. 16th.


Peter

Deadly Asteroid will not collide with Earth in 2040 - an asteroid about 140 meters long, or 460 feet, will not be on a collision course with Earth after all. Scientists say that if the asteroid, known as 2011 AG5, would have collided with our planet, it would have released an energy equaling that of 100 megatons of energy - a few thousands times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped in Japan in 1945.
"An analysis of the new data conducted by NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, shows that the risk of collision in 2040 has been eliminated," NASA said Friday. According to those results, scientists say the asteroid will miss the Earth by a mark of about 890,000 kilometers, or 553,000 miles.
Because the asteroid was so close to the sun, astronomers could only observe the massive space rock when it was dark -- which led to only a 30-minute window for astronomers to observe the asteroid before it got too bright. "The second effect is the turbulence of the atmosphere makes things fainter. We had to keep trying over and over until we got one of those nights when the atmosphere was calm."

Peter

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE - 2013 is only days away, and according to most forecasters, Solar Max should be approaching as well. But is it? Declining sunspot counts and anemic solar activity suggest an interesting possibility: Perhaps Solar Max has already passed. So far, Solar Cycle 24 is underperforming even compared to the NOAA led Solar Cycle Prediction Panel's low expectations. There is still a strong chance that Cycle 24 will rebound and peak in 2013 as expected. It might even be a double-peaked cycle like the cycle before it. As 2013 nears only one thing is certain: WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN.

Peter

gilly wrote:SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE - 2013 is only days away, and according to most forecasters, Solar Max should be approaching as well. But is it? Declining sunspot counts and anemic solar activity suggest an interesting possibility: Perhaps Solar Max has already passed. So far, Solar Cycle 24 is underperforming even compared to the NOAA led Solar Cycle Prediction Panel's low expectations. There is still a strong chance that Cycle 24 will rebound and peak in 2013 as expected. It might even be a double-peaked cycle like the cycle before it. As 2013 nears only one thing is certain: WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN.

Peter

Hi Peter!!! Could you please explain cycle 24.

Basically NASA likes to number things!!

In 1752 the Sun reached a similar high energy level as 2013 (is suposed to be?). The sun goes through cycles of energy--highs and lows.

2013 will be the 24th high since 1752.

Peter

Thank you Peter!!!!!

CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1640 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. At the moment, however, the sunspot is mostly quiet, producing only a smattering of low-level C-class eruptions.

Peter

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES - The sun is peppered with spots: There are now more than a dozen numbered active regions scattered around the solar disk. As the sunspot count increases so does the chance of flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-class eruptions and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
The most active sunspot so far is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. On Jan. 5th at 09:34 UT, the unnumbered region unleashed an M1.7-class eruption that sent a wave of ionization rippling through the upper atmosphere over Europe. The flare was too brief, however, to produce a significant CME. More flares appear to be in the offing.

Peter

After a very long lull-----

Sunspot of interest - A break in the quiet could be in the offing. Sunspot AR1667 is crackling with C-class solar flares and appears capable of producing an even stronger M-class eruption. The sunspot is turning toward Earth, so future blasts would likely be geoeffective.
Feb. 2nd, the solar activity forecast called for "quiet." Instead, "it was really loud. There were several strong solar radio emissions including one super-strong Type III burst at 1954 UT." The source of the burst was sunspot AR1667, which unleashed a C2.9-class solar flare just before the roar emerged.
Type III solar radio bursts are produced by electrons accelerated to high energies (1 to 100 keV) by solar flares. As the electrons stream outward from the sun, they excite plasma oscillations and radio waves in the sun's atmosphere. When these radio waves head in the direction of Earth, they make themselves heard in the loudspeakers of shortwave radios around the dayside of the planet. More radio bursts could be in the offing.
Peter

Not Solar as such, but interesting enough to include here----
Another close asteroid encounter for Earth coming Friday - We've never seen an object this big get so close to Earth.
Sky watchers in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Australia will get a chance to see one very big rock hurtling through the heavens. Compared with other asteroids traveling through space, this one may seem a relative pebble - at half the size of a football field, but "this is a RECORD-SETTING CLOSE APPROACH. Since regular sky surveys began in the 1990s, we've never seen an object this big get so close to Earth."
The asteroid, known as "2012 DA14," will pass inside the ring of Earth's geosynchronous weather and communications satellites tomorrow, coming within just 17,200 miles of the Earth's surface at around 12:30 p.m. PT. But don't worry, there's no chance, NASA says, that the asteroid might be on a collision course with Earth.
Though the impact of an object this size would not be a global catastrophic event, it would surely cause massive and widespread devastation on a regional scale. On June 30, 1908, an asteroid similar to 2012 DA14 did in fact impact Earth, leveling trees for 820 square miles in Tunguska, Russia. These asteroids are serious business and could easily take out an entire city.

Peter

'Communication satellites'

What is the chance of this affecting all communication over certain areas,Peter?

Joanie

I understand there is a slight risk--most satellites are nearer to earth than this transi--BUT NOT ALL!!
We will wait and see Joannie.
Peter

gilly wrote:I understand there is a slight risk--most satellites are nearer to earth than this transi--BUT NOT ALL!!
We will wait and see Joannie.
Peter

I believe there was a warning,Peter sometime ago.

Hope not....
Joanie

Hi Joannie
There was a warning in late 2010 about solar flares damaging satelites and messing up communications--have been winding up kids at school about their mobile phones ever since.
Cannot recall warning about a metiorite--CAN ANYONE ELSE CONFIRM????
Peter